The Parallax Brief


Unrepentant Subjectivity on Economics, Politics, Defence, Foreign Policy, and Russia

More Missile Shield Misunderstandings

As a kind of appendix to the previous post regarding Charles Krauthammer’s woolly and often wantonly disingenuous Washington Post column on Obama’s missile shield stance, the Parallax Brief would like to explain just why Russia is concerned about the possibility of a US missile shield in Europe.

An argument the Parallax Brief often hears against Russia’s view of the missile shield as a threat is “what use are the ten interceptors against Russia’s thousands of missiles?” To a certain extent, that’s true: a few interceptor missiles as part of a US missile shield would be useless against a Russian first strike.

However, that’s not the issue. As far as the Parallax Brief can deduce, Russia is not concerned about its ability to perpetrate a first strike, but its ability to offer a credible deterrent against one.

To understand this, we need a better understanding of the various options available to the US and Russia in a potential nuclear war.
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Filed under: Defence, Foreign policy, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Krauthammering Away At Russia, Missile Shield

Charles Krauthammer is clearly a smart guy, which makes the Parallax Brief wonder seriously why he penned last week a combination of flab and fallacy on US-Russia relations, titled Obama’s Supine Diplomacy, for the Washington Post.

Krauthammer justifies the titular accusation thus: that Russia has already provoked the US on several fronts:

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Levine’s Lackluster Labyrinth

The Parallax Brief was last year so looking forward to the release of Putin’s Labyrinth that he pre-ordered it on Amazon and had a friend pick it up on a trip to the US. Its author, Steve Levine, had written a well respected account of the post-communist scramble for Caspian hydrocarbons, The Oil and the Glory, and penned consistently solid analysis on the activities of Big Oil for Newsweek.

But what a disappointment.

Weighing in at less than 200 pages, Putin’s Labyrinth is a shallow, banal examination of Putin’s Russia. The book suffers from tired writing, poor investigative journalism, personal subjectivity, a paucity of research and a seeming absence of understanding or experience of the subject matter, as well as an unwillingness to think in nuances rather than absolutes, on the part of the author: Nothing that hasn’t already been repeated ad infinitum is said, no new analysis is offered, no fresh insights are provided and the conclusions drawn are risibly passé and wholly, in the Parallax Brief’s view, wrong.

In fact, the Parallax Brief has been meaning for some time to get around to savaging Levine’s pathetic effort to chronicle modern day Russia, but after stumbling upon Stephen Boykewich’s review of Putin’s Labyrinth in the unlikely confines of the Virginia Quarterly Review (VQR), he decided that now was the time.

Written through the prism of his own experiences in Russia, Boykewich’s essay on Putin’s Labyrinth is sensational, and is so well written, tightly constructed and acutely observed that the Parallax Brief suddenly understood the difference between those who get paid for this stuff, and those who have to set up their own blogs on freeware platforms like WordPress in order to satisfy their burning ego.

Boykewich’s 5000 words contain more thoughtful and fresh insights into modern day Russia than Levine’s entire book – a damning indictment of Levine’s effort – and all those interested in Russian politics or foreign policy should click here for thoroughly recommended weekend reading.

Filed under: Foreign policy, Politics, Russia, , , , , , , , ,

Can Lasers Rescue Moscow’s Pedestrians?

Traffic in Moscow is appalling. Jams clog every main road during rush hour like fatty deposits in a 60-a-day smoker’s arteries. Famously, traffic from one of Moscow’s main airports, Sheremetyevo, is so bad that the car journey from terminal to city centre can take anywhere from forty minutes to eternity.

All this is true, and widely reported, but a worse problem, in the Parallax Brief’s view, is the average Moscow driver’s complete disregard for any traffic law. Not only does this mean that unnecessary jams are caused by drivers’ refusal to follow rules in place to ensure the smooth flow of traffic, but it makes crossing roads incredibly dangerous for pedestrians.

For instance, just the other day the Parallax Brief was crossing at a pedestrian crossing when the light was on green (red for the cars), only to reach the middle of the road and find cars whizzing infront and behind him at about 60 mph, accompanied by much angry horn honking. The Parallax Brief would like to take this opportunity to apologize to the drivers for putting their cars at risk by foolishly expecting them to stop at a red light, because the fact of the matter is that in Moscow zebra crossings are completely ignored and traffic lights at pedestrian crossings are treated as a kind of ‘suggested guideline’, rather than sacrosanct.

This, as any Moscow resident will be aware, creates a certain frisson every time a busy junction is crossed, and while this may be good for thrill seeking adrenaline junkies, the Parallax Brief is of a more sedate disposition and would prefer something to be done.

Perhaps Korean designer Hanyoung Lee has the solution: lasers that will vaporise offending drivers. Well, not really. The concept involves a (non-lethal) red ‘laser wall’ which will project the silhouettes of pedestrians and make drivers more aware of both the red light and where their space ends and the pedestrian space starts.

Of course, the Parallax Brief would prefer something that could atomize transgressing cars, but this is a fabulous concept nonetheless.

Filed under: Russia, , , , , ,

Boris Nemtsov: The Gift to Putin that Keeps on Giving

When Vladimir Putin’s critics craft shrill op-eds about opposition parties being ruthlessly crushed in Russia, they often miss the salient point: really, the opposition in Russia is unsuccessful and unpopular because it isn’t very good and doesn’t have many popular policies.

Of course, it is true that the Russian media and society are not as free as in the West, but more often than not, Russia’s opposition simply does Putin’s job for him. The Parallax Brief is sure that even Robert Amsterdam would agree that Putin and Medvedev are preferable to Vladimir Zhirinovky’s comedy-fascist LDPR, Gennady Zyuganov’s communists, or the array of hapless or nasty nationalists, bolsheviks or white power groups raging at Russia’s political fringes.

But beyond this gallery of unelectable extremist halfwits, even the pro-west, pro-business, supposedly democratically minded group of former Yeltsin era Young Reformers that currently call themselves Solidarity offer little.

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Filed under: Economics, Politics, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ask and Ye Shall Receive

The Parallax Brief argued on these e-pages a couple of days ago that simply because recent recessions have been relatively short and ‘V-shaped’, there is no guarantee that the terrible crisis we’re currently living through will follow the same pattern. Humans are far more likely to base their predictions on recent memory than to delve back far into history or consider the possibility that something new and unseen could occur.

That’s one of the reasons irrational exuberance and panic pervades the markets still.

But actually, as the Parallax Brief argued in his article, we don’t really have to invent a new and cataclysmic economic Black Swan to get an idea of just how bad this recession could get: we simply need to look back further than 1938. Hot on the heels of the Parallax Brief’s article on this matter, Matthew Yglesias argues the same point (better) on his 100% superfly blog:

“Between the end of [the Great Depression] and the beginning of our current troubles, the National Bureau of Economic Research has identified eleven additional recessions, the longest of which (in the mid-seventies and in the early-eighties) lasted 16 months each. NBER doesn’t have data for the first half of the nineteenth century, but in the second half of the nineteenth century there were eleven recessions of which fully seven were longer-lasting than any of our post-Depression recessions.”

Note in particular the so-called “Long Depression” set off by the Panic of 1873. This was a five year, two month recession followed by a 34 month expansion followed by a new 38 month contraction. In other words, we had an eleven plus year span during which the economy was contracting over 75 percent of the time. That’s no good. And in addition to the direct economic harms of that sort of thing, you can have some very nasty political consequences in these situations. But that’s the world of passivity in the face of economic calamity.

Yglesias is far smarter than the Parallax Brief (he has a magna cum laude philosophy degree from Harvard, the Parallax Brief has a certificate of membership for the GI Joe Club), and it is hoped that his argument might be more persuasive than the Parallax Brief’s for those who don’t yet grasp quite how bad this could all get.

Filed under: Economics, , , , , , , , , ,

Tempting Fate in Bad Times

No sooner had the Parallax Brief crafted an article about the paradox of thrift and its effects on Moscow, than Bloomberg illustrates the point by publishing yet another set of wrist-slashingly depressing figures for the Russian economy:

“Russia’s unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent in January, the highest since March 2005, as collapsing demand and frozen credit markets forced businesses to cut staff.

The total number of unemployed rose by 300,000 in the month to 6.1 million people, or 8.1 percent of the working population, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement today. That was lower than the median forecast of 9 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for 8.2 percent.”

So if dropping demand and the evaporation of credit availability are leading to job losses, what affect do the job losses have? Why, they square the vicious circle, of course. According to another article on Bloomberg today, rising unemployment is having exactly the affect the paradox of thrift tells us it should:

“Russian retail sales grew at the slowest pace in more than nine years in January as the country faced its first recession in a decade because of falling commodity prices and the credit crisis.

Sales increased an annual 2.4 percent, the lowest growth rate since November 1999, down from 4.8 percent in December, the Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement today.”

Of course, the good news is that the figures exceeded the predictions of most economists, who had anticipated effectively flat growth, although how long this will last is anyone’s guess.

The Parallax Brief isn’t really so pleased that his gloomy prognoses are being backed by fresh evidence, but one thing is clear: whether you want to call it the vicious cycle or the paradox of thrift, it’s working in Russia in the same way it is working everywhere else, and it’s going to hurt.

Filed under: Economics, Russia, , , , , , ,

Krugman Overwhelmed by Stress, Planning to Become Monk?

This internet is surely the biggest leap forward in technology since the eighties invented the electrical carving knife, and the Parallax Brief hopelessly addicted. I can be swept into a trancelike state, slowly hyperlinking from a blog post about social planning, to a look at the pros and cons of America’s F-22 Raptor program, to Counterinsurgency Warfare: the Theory and Practice by David Galula, to the Algerian War of Independence, to Charles De Gaulle, to the Day of the Jackal, and all the way through the infinite degrees of separation.

The internet is nirvana, but one does find some odd things, and gain some interesting insights into people’s lives.

For instance, I read Paul Krugman’s blog religiously: I genuinely believe he is one of the finest minds, and most prescient analysts, of our time. In a short blog post today, he included a link to a book called Culture Made Stupid. I followed the link to the book’s Amazon page, where the top review is by none other than Paul Krugman.  From there, we can click through to Krugman’s personal Amazon page and view his Universal Wish List – a feature on Amazon which helps users keep track of the things they want to buy.

And Krugman’s is instructive. First, he is clearly in a state of high stress, with CDs Shamanic Dream, Zen Relaxation, Sleep Deeply, Natural Stress Relief: Dan Gibson’s Solitudes, Echoes of Nature: Rainforest, Evening Crickets (Nature Sounds Only Version), and Soothing Sea populating the top half of Krugman’s wish list.

Even more concerning is the second half of the list, which suggests the Nobel Laureate is so troubled about the parlous state of the world economy that he preparing to quit his positions as professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton Universit and New York Times op-ed columnist for a life of chastity, poverty and piety as a Monk. According to his wish list, Krugman is planning to read Finding Sanctuary: Monastic Steps for Everyday Life, by Abbot Christopher Jamison, and An Infinity of Little Hours: Five Young Men and Their Trial of Faith in the Western World’s Most Austere Monastic Order by Nancy Klein Maguire .

I think we should all be very worried.

Filed under: Economics, , , , ,

The Mean Streets of Moscow

It is a cliché of epic proportions to say Moscow is a city of contrasts, but it’s a cliché because it’s true. Nowhere else in Europe, and I suspect nowhere in the world since the American Gilded Age went pop in 1929, can one see poverty so starkly juxtaposed with screamingly conspicuous wealth. (In fact, the Parallax Brief sees plenty of parallels between the Gilded Age and the Russia of today, but that’s a story for another day.)

And it’s not just the gap between rich and poor which provides the contrasts – often nothing here feels congruous.

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Filed under: Russia, , , , ,

Paradox of Thrift Hits Moscow

Thrift, as my grandmother always reminds me, a good thing. If I save money, rather than spending it on electronic gadgets, more wine than I can really afford, and eating in restaurants five days a week, I build a safety cushion for rainy days and emergencies, and, hopefully, get richer, because the money I save pays me interest, or is in the form of investments that promise to pay a return.

Thrift is even good for the economy, because even though Moscow’s restaurateurs don’t benefit quite as much from my patronage, the bank at which I deposit my money will then loan it out to businesses, which can then invest to expand, and people, who are then able to buy things like cars or houses. My money still stimulates the economy, even when saved.

But there is one problem with thrift: the moment when businesses and people are frightened into becoming thrifty suddenly and all at once.

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