The Parallax Brief

Icon

Unrepentant Subjectivity on Economics, Politics, Defence, Foreign Policy, and Russia

US Occupation of the USSR 1952-1960

The Parallax Brief loves counter-factual history — especially when it revolves around the what-ifs of a potential Warsaw Pact–NATO conflict. So much is he interested in NATO and Warsaw Pact military history that he was even willing to degrade himself by reading a Tom Clancy book, Red Storm Rising. (Never fear, it was a one off, and the Parallax Brief used protection). Imagine his glee, then, when via Matthew Yglesias’s mind-meltingly great blog, he found the pictured, October 1951 front cover of long deceased American Magazine, Collier’s.

Titled Preview of the War We Do Not Want, Collier’s devoted their whole 130 page October issue to how a war with the USSR might ignite and how the US – and its allies from the UN – would win that war. And it seems as if Collier’s took the whole thing very seriously, enlisting government help and even going so far as to tap Edward R Murrow, famous for his wartime broadcasts from London, to write an article titled A-Bomb Mission to Moscow, in which he is implanted into a B-36 bomber crew on a mission to nuke Moscow.

Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Defence, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Right is Against Fairness

A big problem with the extreme right wing of the Republican Party specifically, and the American conservative movement in general (and for that matter the extreme right-wing of the Conservative Party and movement in Britain, too) is that it is slavishly ideological. Anything is acceptable in the name of progressing the Right’s cause; nothing anyone outside the team ever does is ever good.

With this in mind, I found, via Matthew Yglesias’s consistently outstanding blog, a colossally idiotic article by James Besser concerning the possible appointment of a special envoy to aid the Israel-Palestine peace process:

“Some Jewish leaders say the very qualities that may appeal to the Obama administration — Mitchell’s reputation as an honest broker — could spark unhappiness, if not outright opposition, from some pro-Israel groups.

“Sen. Mitchell is fair. He’s been meticulously even-handed,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “So I’m concerned,” Foxman continued. “I’m not sure the situation requires that kind of approach in the Middle East.””

Abraham Foxman, the chairman of the Anti-Defamation League, should be ashamed: as Yglesias himself points out, the article is “incredibly stupid—nobody comes out against fairness.

But herein lies the problem with the pro-Israel lobby, and, I might say, the Right in general. They have a blinkered, ‘you’re either unequivocally with us, or you’re a sworn enemy’ approach to ideology that would make a jihadist proud, and simply can’t tolerate deviation from the play book on any matter at any stage, even if deviating is the right thing to do.

Nowhere is this tendency more evident than with Israel. So hysterical is the right’s defence of Israel, that it has become next to impossible to criticize Israel’s actions without being labeled as a terrorist sympathizer who wants to deny Israel the right to exist.

I’m nowhere near smart enough to disentangle the complex knot of issues that comprises the Israel question, but I would suggest one of the biggest roadblocks to peace is that both sides are primarily supported by absolutists who will brook no compromise or discussion. Of course, this kind of idealogical absolutism has been traditionally associated with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Muslim extremists in general, but the sooner we realize that we have a very powerful contingent in the so-called Judeo-Christian world with similarly intractable, although diametrically opposed, views, the sooner we can sideline both sets of crazies, who would both rather see a continuation of scenes like the one depicted in the picture above than accept compromise.

That way, more reasonable types may be able to get on with the task of finding a “meticulously even-handed”, “fair” solution to what is ultimately an inhumanly destruvtive problem.

Filed under: Defence, Foreign policy, , , , , , , , ,

Global System More Fragile than we Think

Much of my recent reading has been dominated by the financial crisis sweeping the world. Working in an investment bank at the moment feels rather like being a office cleaner for the Pentagon during the Cuban Missile Crisis: there is no respite from the torrent of apocalyptic news but there is little one can do to influence the situation.

However, while the effects of the current credit crisis and financial turmoil on economies, job markets, and businesses are difficult to underestimate, there is also a broader, global issue at play. Until recently, I had assumed that globalization was a new phenomenon, driven by modern developments in logistics and communication. But if you, like me, assumed this, you’d be wrong.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Laureate for Economics takes up the story:

“…our grandfathers lived in a world of largely self-sufficient, inward-looking national economies — but our great-great grandfathers lived, as we do, in a world of large-scale international trade and investment.”

I first heard of this ‘first great globalization’ when watching Naill Ferguson’s excellent television series, The Ascent of Money. In it, Ferguson alluded briefly to a world which was, in relative terms, as financially interconnected as it is today.

Serendipitously, I stumbled on Krugman’s op-ed at around the same time, and what makes the first great globilization such a frightening story is the tightly corresponding similarities to the world of today: technological advances, increasing integration, and full blown globalization that fueled unparalleled economic growth.

Further, people of the time, like now, assumed that war would be so unprofitable and economically damaging that it would never happen. Of course, we now know understand the fallacy of this thinking, but the story has some sobering implications for the world of today. Krugman explains:

“But then came three decades of war, revolution, political instability, depression and more war. By the end of World War II, the world was fragmented economically as well as politically. And it took a couple of generations to put it back together…

Can things fall apart again? Yes… the belief that economic rationality always prevents war is an equally great illusion. And today’s high degree of global economic interdependence, which can be sustained only if all major governments act sensibly, is more fragile than we imagine.”

Certainly worth a read for those interested in history, economics, and geo-politics and foreign affairs. And something else that is of interest is Ferguson’s recent review of a book covering a related subject for the Financial Times.

The point I’m trying to make is that while we live in a stable, interconnected, increasingly prosperous world, it only takes one financial or economic shock handled in the wrong way to bring nationalism back into vogue in one or two places, encourage countries to pull up the barriers, and, at the very least, lead to a domino effect that sends us drifting away from the model of increasing integration and division/specialization of labour which has made the world more prosperous than ever before. Conflict is unprofitable, but it didn’t stop us last time, and to think it will this time is folly.

I would hope we would now be more mature, but I’m not so sure. It is well known, for instance, that the Smoot-Hawley Act expedited the onset of the Great Depression, yet China and Russia have both overtly sidestepped toward a more protectionist stance of late, and dark rumblings of an Sino-American trade war can be heard just over the horizon.

You have been warned.

Filed under: Economics, Foreign policy, , , , , , , , , , ,

Gaza Supplies Nauseating Reminder of the Cost of War

It would take a smarter man than I to disentangle the history, justifications, claims, emotions, propaganda and truth of the current conflict in Gaza. But while the pundits and analysts intellectualize the conflict, a war with terrible human costs is being waged.

A friend sent me a picture yesterday that beggars belief. It depicts a burnt baby being held up by an (understandably) hysterical medic. Clearly shown are the infant’s face, body, and bloody femur bones. I don’t know whether the picture is real or fake; whether it was staged or not. Neither do I apportion blame. However, it serves to remind us of the probable cost of this war.

Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Foreign policy, , , , , ,